 |
||
 |
||
 |
Volume 3 ▪ Number 2▪ June 2007
POLITICS Kosovo’s road to independence and beyond Kosovo has been a de facto UN protectorate since 1999, but is now believed to be on the way to independence. This move is vehemently opposed by Belgrade, which argues that the former Yugoslav province is a part of Serbia. The United States is in favour of Kosovo gaining independence as soon as possible, while the European Union supports independence only with the consent of the United Nations. Russia, meanwhile, openly threatens that it will block any resolution of the UN Security Council that endorses independence. This stalemate has made the process of clarifying status more difficult to achieve than ever. And if the question of whether Kosovo will gain independence remains unresolved, then the Kosovar Albanians may be forced to re-evaluate their position, a move that could yield unpredictable results endangering the stability not only of Kosovo, but of the region as a whole. It has often been noted that there is only one issue on which Albanians and Serbs are in agreement, and that is the European perspective. European integration is a joint objective that is shared by all inhabitants of Kosovo, as well as their neighbours. Everything thus depends on Europe.
The Westernization of the East, or the Easternization of the West? Central European and Hungarian politics have been impacted by four different effects since the turn of 2002-2003, when the Atlantic crisis erupted. First came the Bush doctrine and its European counter-effects in 2002-2004. Second were the “colour revolutions” – primarily the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine at the turn of 2004-2005 – and a resurgent Russia. Then the Merkel effect set in, with the change in European – and foremost German – policy and the attempt at finding a balance in 2006-2007. And fourth, parallel with the prior effect, came the shift in emphasis of American foreign and security policy as a result of the Democrat victory in US congressional elections, the fall of the neoconservatives, and the appearance of the Rice-Gates-Paulson realpolitik. The article provides an overview of how the newly acceded Central European EU member states, Hungary among them, have been forced to adapt and develop amid fluctuating conditions of security, foreign and energy policy in the past five years.
Czech foreign policy: Farewell to Svejk For many years Czech foreign policy was best characterized by the attitude represented by the protagonist of Jaroslav Hasek’s novel The Good Soldier Svejk: namely, that it is best to avoid conflicts altogether, but that if they do become unavoidable, then they are to be endured with good humour or with an effort to somehow survive the situation. In this respect, the decision by the centre-right government of Mirek Topolánek to approve construction of an American radar station on Czech territory can be seen as a paradigm shift. The government not only signalled a break with the Svejkian tradition, but also risked finding itself in opposition to the opinion of the majority of the population. At the same time, surprisingly, all the relevant players who have an influence over Czech foreign policy share an identical position in support of the construction of the radar station, This is all the more surprising because in previous cases of similar importance (NATO membership, the Kosovo intervention, the war in Iraq), politicians and parties took opposing views, mostly based on domestic policy considerations. Another sign of change is that by the end of April the parties in government managed to adopt a joint approach towards the European Union, which had been previously inconceivable. In spite of the encouraging signs, however, the author believes that Czech foreign policy will probably remain a prisoner of party political manoeuvres for some time to come.
Which way forward for Slovak foreign policy? Slovakia’s foreign policy entered a new phase with the formation of the government following the elections of June 2006. The results – and especially the composition of the new governing coalition of Smer-SD (Direction-Social Democracy), led by Robert Fico, and two smaller parties (in terms of electoral support), Ján Slota’s Slovak National Party and Vladimír Meciar’s People’s Party-Movement for a Democratic Slovakia – made it much harder to predict the long-term implications of the 2006 elections than in previous elections in 1994, 1998 and 2002. What are the key features of Slovak foreign policy following the change in government? To what degree do they represent continuity, and what are the potential changes that appear to be taking shape? These are some of the questions that the Slovakian expert seeks to answer.
Regional security policy – the Finnish approach In this article, the undersecretary of state for political affairs at Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summarizes the objectives and courses of action of Finnish security policy. He points to support for security and stability in Northern Europe as a primary responsibility of this policy, which includes active participation in the formation of European Union policy towards Russia and improving dialogue with Moscow with the goal of furthering Russian reforms and promoting a successful partnership. The author argues that this could favourably affect the situation of the Baltic states, which are closely watched by Finnish foreign policymakers. Furthermore, he regards the EU’s enlargement process and the development of a well-functioning neighbourhood policy as key elements of European security worthy of Finnish support. He believes that strong transatlantic ties significantly bolster European security, which is why Helsinki strives to strengthen these ties, both on a bilateral basis and as an EU member state. The author also discusses Finland’s active conflict prevention and crisis management policy, and its participation in arms reduction and arms inspection programmes. In addition, he outlines the Finnish position regarding the missile defence system the US plans to install in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Anti-communist policy in Hungary – the rightist character of Fidesz In analyzing the history and current situation of Hungary’s largest right-wing party, the Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz-MPSZ), this article also reviews the most important questions regarding the Hungarian right since the change in regime. How did Fidesz transform from a small party professing liberal values into the leading party of the Hungarian right? The author, a political scientist, examines how the Hungarian party system developed, and outlines the main sources of political confrontation between the left and right. What does the Fidesz-dominated right stand for?
ECONOMY Energy transit in the post-Soviet region The post-Soviet transit system was developed on the basis of East-West energy trade in the previously bipolar world. It is underlain by the commercial ties between Moscow and West European states that have persisted irrespective of the collapse of the Soviet Union – in the case of natural gas, through long-term contracts. For West European energy companies, it was convenient to take delivery of hydrocarbons from the Russians at their own borders, leaving the issue of transit as a bilateral affair between Moscow and the transit countries involved. Almost all issues related to transit between Russia and transit countries were resolved under annual intergovernmental agreements. These agreements extended to shipment prices, import volume, quantities transiting, and methods of payment (cash, or generally barter). In practice these agreements were handled rather flexibly, and the actual trade was conducted at most according to the spirit of the agreements, rather than their literal terms. This lax policy of deal-making worked rather well while there was an abundance of natural resources, and while local industrial clans were satisfied with what they got. But from the mid-1990s onward, the situation changed.
The renewal of nuclear energy in Central-Eastern Europe Pavel Antonov – Paul Brown The European Union, which seeks a leading global role in environmental sustainability, has recently strongly opposed nuclear energy. However, with the accession of twelve new Central and East European member states, which are either nuclear energy producers or aspiring producers, the nuclear energy lobby within the union has gained new and strong supporters. EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs emphasizes in vain that governments need to take all alternatives to nuclear energy into consideration before making decisions that force their people into projects that offer no way out for an entire generation. The problem is that energy policy is determined by governments that are subject to intense lobbying by major enterprises, with both parties favouring mega-projects involving massive construction. Meanwhile, a report drafted in 2006 argues that energy demand in the European Union could be lowered by as much as 20% by 2020 through simple measures, all of which are more economical than the construction of new power plants. According to the position of the REEEP, the international organization advancing the use of renewable energy sources, it would take at least another ten years for any of the East European governments to draw on energy from new nuclear power plants, while they could benefit from increased energy efficiency within months.
BOOK REVIEW A revisionist book about the events of 1956
The occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Hungarian revolution saw the publication of a vast array of historical works. However, the only historical review that could claim to present the Hungarian events of 1956 in a new light, and to evaluate them differently from the historical studies hitherto published, is probably that written by Charles Gati. The author does not provide a chronological account of the history of 1956, nor does he strive to prove that it could have turned out differently. His main thesis, and his conclusion supported by arguments, is that the protagonists of the events had fallen prey to an illusion. Bereft of adequate leadership, the insurgents believed they were fighting for a just cause and that the “entire civilized world” was thus behind them, giving them the sufficient strength to force the Soviet Union to back off. The United States government, on the other hand, was living in a mirage created by its own words, embodied in its promise to “liberate enslaved nations.” It not only misled the world regarding its intentions vis-a-vis communism, but it deluded itself too. When the time for action came, the US thus proved impotent. Finally, argues Gati, the majority of the Soviet political elite believed that because Stalinist methods were the most suitable means for preserving an “alliance” that had been established on the basis of violence anyway, Khrushchev had no choice but to order the invasion.
The directory as knowledge base
A directory of think tanks in Central Europe and Eurasia – research institutions that enjoy a high level of autonomy, and are not significantly influenced by the state, government, corporations or political parties – is published by Freedom House, containing the addresses, areas of activity, and lists of leaders of these institutions. An accompanying study contained in the volume points out that think tanks are a relatively new phenomenon. These institutions first cropped up in the second half of the previous century in the United States, and then spread to Europe in the 1980s. Though in Central Europe they have only appeared in the last two decades, they have played a key role in ensuring that governments have remained on the path of transition, and that they have progressed from the Washington Consensus to adopting common European values. Think tanks have assumed a kind of supervisory role in the reform process, striving to influence public opinion to this effect.
|
 |
 |
||
Data protection ▪ Contact Us |
||
