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Volume 3 ▪ Number 3▪ Sep 2007
POLITICS Hungary’s emerging new foreign relations strategy After more than a year’s work the draft foreign relations strategy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is complete. Its creation was necessitated by the fact that in a globalizing world domestic politics and foreign relations are as closely intertwined as possible, which is why we need a comprehensive medium-term strategy to provide a framework for Hungary’s international activities. This draft, which seeks to delineate the Hungarian foreign policy strategy until 2020, takes the so-called “triple priority” of Hungarian foreign policy as a starting point, but adjusts it to changing circumstances and the transformed international environment. The strategy will be the subject of broad political and social consultations and, in addition to the parties in Parliament, social partners, civil organizations and expert researchers, all citizens will be able to take part in this debate through the media or the internet. The author of this article, who participated in preparing the draft, summarizes its most important conclusions.
Hungarian foreign policy reloaded? By the end of the 1990s the effects of globalization were becoming obvious, affecting the whole world. Between 1987 and 1997, Hungary achieved several spectacular foreign policy successes. Since then, however, it has been able to achieve hardly anything worth noting. It thus became clear that changes in the world and in Hungary’s status required a different foreign policy. The most important strategic goal is for Hungary to orient itself to the new situation arising from its EU and NATO membership, pursuing a foreign policy that conforms to that of the European Union and/or its member states’ foreign policies. Accordingly, it needs to ensure that the most important Hungarian foreign policy goals become part of common EU policy, while at the same time ensuring that EU and member states’ most important interests and objectives are integrated into Hungarian foreign policy. The fact that the drafting of a new foreign policy strategy has begun gives cause for optimism. At the same time, however, the continued prevalence of the root causes underlying the stagnation of the past decade renders substantial change doubtful.
Polish society, politics and elections Numerous unique features characterize the Polish situation that emerged after 1989. In short, extreme fluctuations in the political realm have been coupled with markedly successful economic performance. If we take a closer look, there are several phenomena worthy of our attention. First, voter apathy in Poland is greatest among all the Central and East European countries. Second, the Poles do not have stable party preferences, and voters’ fickleness seems infinite – hardly comparable to the values measured in established democracies. Third, the same instability is typical on the “supply side” – in every election politicians represent different positions. Not only are there no well-organized parties, but existing parties continuously change their manifesto promises and follow them only very loosely once they enter government. In addition, they have proven incapable of establishing stable coalitions. Moreover, in this overwhelmingly agrarian and Catholic country there is neither a successful agrarian nor a Christian democratic party, while Poland was the first state in the region where the post-communists regained power. What are the reasons for all this? This is a question the author seeks to answer.
It appears rather unlikely that early elections on 30 September forced by President Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, leader of the influential opposition grouping Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT), will make the domestic political situation in Ukraine more stable. The chances of resolving the ongoing crisis are slim because the election did not provide an answer to any of the disputed issues and because the results were so close that a governing coalition capable of long-term cooperation is rather unlikely to emerge. Issues still in limbo include how reform of the Ukrainian constitution, commenced in 2004 but still not concluded, will continue, and what kind of economic policy will be pursued by the new Ukrainian government – presumably composed of the BYuT and Our Ukraine (NU) – given that protraction of the instability will sooner or later inevitably lead to a decline in the growth rate of the Ukrainian economy (which has hitherto developed more or less independently of the political turmoil). Finally, the vote has also failed to adequately address the issue of how to reduce the country’s east-west divisions.
Ukraine’s geopolitical room for manoeuvre The fundamental tenor of post-Soviet “internal” international relations is that of reluctance, and the exacerbation of minor local conflicts and neighbourly grievances resulting from symbolic actions. This will increasingly conflict with the moderation necessary for the mutual assertion of interests. In these relations, a policy of negative gestures will become unnecessarily dominant, and ought to be at least partially offset by positive gestures. The latter is something that thus far neither the former imperial peripheries nor the former imperial centre have been very good at. This generally holds for Ukraine as well. In such a setting, one of the fundamental problems of Ukrainian foreign policy is how the country is perceived by the other geopolitical players, the United States and the EU. Overall it can be asserted that thinking regarding the traditional geographical area surrounding Ukraine is still determined by European and Atlantic thinking relating to Russia. The latter positions are naturally not necessarily identical, however, and hence one of the opportunities of Ukrainian foreign policy lies in exploiting the differences.
The Republic of Moldova: past and present The author, a political scientist, first briefly reviews Moldova’s history from 1940 to 1990, from the establishment of the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic to the foundation of the Republic of Moldova. He then proceeds to discuss the policies of the separatist regime calling itself the “Transnistrian Moldavian Republic,” which has ruled in the eastern part of the country for the past 16 years, as well as Moscow’s support for the secessionist republic. Finally, Nantoi examines the conditions for realistic handling of the conflict in Transnistria, analyzes the strategic steps towards reunification (demilitarization, decriminalization and democratization), and concludes – among other things – that though the Republic of Moldova lies within the Russian Federation’s geopolitical realm of intervention, it is now also subject to the European Neighbourhood Policy. “Ensuring stability and security in this part of Europe is possible only by involving the Republic of Moldova in multi-dimensional cooperation with the EU, preserving at the same time the prospect of accession to the EU,” Nantoi writes.
ECONOMY Prospects for the Hungarian economy in a converging Europe A forecast prepared by the European Commission suggests that if we review the average trends in Central Europe from the time of accession of the new EU members to the end of this decade, then Hungary’s pace of convergence will prove the slowest among the members of the Visegrád Four. Slovakia is likely to overtake Hungary in terms of reducing the difference between its economic output and the average of the EU-15. This perspective is rather depressing, especially if we consider that in the period 1995-2003 Hungary was the country that was catching up most rapidly in the region, while in the early years of the new millennium it even seemed that it had a good chance of overtaking the Czech Republic. Are the prospects of Hungarian convergence and rising standards of living indeed this gloomy? The article examines the current state of the Hungarian economy, and the effects of austerity measures and reforms. The author discusses the most important challenges of economic policy that will decide whether or not Hungary falls behind in the regional race for economic convergence and competitiveness.
Adapting Hungarian agriculture to the Common Agricultural Policy No sector of the national economy has been affected as deeply by European Union accession as agriculture. The obvious reason is that while EU member states are relatively free to set their own economic policies in industry or even the service sector, conditions for the agricultural economy are mostly determined by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) designed in Brussels, through its systems of direct and indirect subsidies, as well as through the use of market regulatory instruments. The article enumerates the winners and losers of EU accession in agriculture, the effects on employment numbers in Hungarian agriculture, and changes in the structure of farm ownership and agricultural income. It also discusses the likely effects of the CAP reform that appears to be taking shape. The reform envisions reductions in subsidies and a stronger role for the market in response to budgetary pressures and changes in the international economy.
SOCIETY “Wasteful affairs” in Central and Eastern Europe A new line of industry is emerging as West European businesses illegally transport waste to poorer European countries. The illegal waste shipments flow from West to East, and from North to South, from the old EU member states to the new ones. The author cites specific examples, such as waste illegally delivered from Germany to Hungary. One cause of the waste shipments is the basic EU principle of the free flow of goods; in the EU, garbage is also considered a good. Another driving force behind the waste shipments is the huge difference in waste disposal costs between the old and the new member states. The European Commission has suggested that the EU directive on waste should be amended in order to qualify the incineration of communal waste not as disposal but as waste recovery (the European Parliament rejected the bill in the first reading). However, experts argue that if the EU qualifies incineration as recovery, then it effectively makes the poorer states of Central and Eastern Europe target countries for Western waste, as when it comes to the option of refusing waste a key distinction is being made depending on whether transport takes place with the objective of waste recovery or waste disposal. If incinerators are recovery works, then waste is heating material. And as the import of heating material may not be banned by any member state, there will be no way to thwart the waste trade.
BOOK REVIEW Democracy and populism in Central Europe
A scholarly conference that took place in Bratislava in September 2006 analyzed developments in the most recent Polish, Hungarian, Slovak and Czech parliamentary elections. From the records of this conference and subsequent updates, the editors have compiled a volume that comprises three parts. The first part contains case studies of the four countries known as the Visegrád Four. The second part, which gives its title to the volume as a whole, addresses the theoretical and practical manifestations of populism, comparing Central European versions of the phenomenon with their West European counterparts. The third part analyzes the effects of the elections in the Visegrád states on Europe and the Western Balkans. In reality, this volume is more of a journal compiled for a special occasion than a scholarly book, since the authors – the most established political scientists and sociologists in Central Europe dealing with this region – only very rarely attempt to draw more general conclusions, and mostly produce only case studies that relate to specific countries, parties or programmes. Though this lack of “synthesis” may disappoint some readers, others may simply acknowledge that no such synthesis exists.
“Europe 2007” conference
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